By S. L. Schwartz (auth.), W. T. Ziemba, S. L. Schwartz, Ernest Koenigsberg (eds.)
Alex Cowie because the 20th century attracts to an in depth, considered one of our best difficulties is the supply of power. a technique to check the strength challenge is to unravel it into 4 parts; strength call for, strength assets, transportation of power from assets to call for facilities, and the optimum allocation of strength kinds to calls for. every one of those parts is very advanced on its own. while efforts are made to tie them jointly, for instance, to provide a countrywide coverage, the complexities are compounded. in a different way to review the power challenge, due to its political and so cial results, is to solve it into geographical components. person prov inces of Canada or states of the U.S. can have their issues approximately power inside of their geographical obstacles. As manufacturer, customer, or either, each one desires to make certain an power improvement application so as to paintings to the utmost advantage of its voters. equally, nations pastime to seasoned tect their voters and adopt power regulations that may guarantee both a con tinuation of the prevailing caliber of existence or - quite with regards to "Third global" nations - a marked development in caliber of lifestyles. those competing and conflicting ambitions demand a learn which encompasses the entire international. back, complexity is piled upon complexity. If the prob lem isn't but sufficiently advanced, there's an both complicated query of the impression of power construction and use at the ecology.
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Extra info for Energy Policy Modeling: United States and Canadian Experiences: Volume I Specialized Energy Policy Models
Example text
On the other hand, cross-country studies represent a wide range of price ratios and resources bases, and technologies are more representative of longer run elasticities. International comparisons of energy demand and utilization exhibit the wide range of variability that is possible, as well as destroy the myth that there is an increasing relationship between energy use and GNP. Pindyck (1979) provides a chart of the Btus/GNP for six countries for 1960-1975. Canada was highest, averaging approximately 68,000 Btu/$GNP, followed by the United States at 60,000, the United Kingdom at 55,000, the Netherlands and West Germany at 50,000, and with France at the bottom with 30,000.
In projections using the results of that work, the sum of all market shares frequently exceeded unity, with the result that the share of other fuels became negative. 38 ENERGY DEMAND MODELING A related difficulty was the inequality of cross-price effects. A price increase for natural gas, for example, might have a completely different effect on the demand for electricity than an increase in the price of electricity would have on the demand for natural gas. This problem was the result of the single price term in each equation, with the average cost of all competing fuels in the denominator.
Second, empirical examination suggests that time series is more satisfactory for regional forecasts of energy demand. Examination of Table 1-4 suggests that there often 32 ENERGY DEMAND MODELING are significant interregional differences in the coefficients. Further, a comparison of AAPEs from pooled equations that were estimated versus the reported time series equations (both sets of equations having the same specifications) revealed that the average errors were consistently lower with time series, sometimes substantially so.