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By Ping Chen

The main of enormous Numbers exhibits that macro fluctuations have vulnerable microfoundations; chronic company cycles and interrupted applied sciences might be larger characterised by way of macro energy and meso foundations. financial development is proscribed by way of industry quantity and ecological constraints. The trade-off among balance and complexity is the root of cultural range and combined economies. the hot technological know-how of complexity sheds gentle at the assets of financial instability and complexity.

This ebook includes the main paintings of Professor Ping Chen, a pioneer in learning monetary chaos and monetary complexity. they're chosen from works accomplished in view that 1987, together with unique study at the evolutionary dynamics of the department of labour, empirical and theoretical experiences of financial chaos and stochastic versions of collective habit. delivering a brand new viewpoint on marketplace instability and the altering global order, the elemental pillars in equilibrium economics are challenged via strong proof of monetary complexity and time asymmetry, together with Friedman’s thought of exogenous cash and effective marketplace, the Frisch version of noise-driven cycles, the Lucas version of microfoundations and rational expectancies, the Black-Scholes version of alternative pricing, and the Coase thought of transaction costs.

Throughout, a common conception in keeping with advanced evolutionary economics is constructed, which integrates diversified insights from Marx, Marshall, Schumpeter, Keynes and provides a brand new knowing of the evolutionary historical past of department of labour. This publication should be of curiosity to postgraduates and researchers in Economics, together with macroeconomics, monetary economics, complex econometrics and financial methodology.

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Extra info for Economic Complexity and Equilibrium Illusion: Essays on Market Instability and Macro Vitality

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There are three basic models for portrait in self-­stabilizing market: the static linear supply–demand curves; the optimization model with convex utility and production functions; and the linear stochastic model of random walk and geometric Brownian motion. Methodologically speaking, the essential difference is between a single equilibrium state in linear models and multiple equilibrium states in nonlinear models. 2. 1a). It is easily described by a simple diagram and derived from optimization theory under the condition of a non-­increasing economy of scale (Marshall 1920; Varian 1984).

The time lag in phase portrait. the decorrelation time, measured by the first zero of autocorrelation function. It is one-­fourth of the basic period Pc for harmonic cycles. the decorrelation time for FDs series. the decorrelation time for HPc cycles. the relaxation time. flipping frequency. particle velocity. the number of states in the frequency domain. transition probability function in term of order parameter q the reconstructed (filtered) time series based on WGQ transform. output. the power intensity of frequency i.

In short, there is no quantitative evidence for an efficient market. Unpredictability and ignorance do not imply market efficiency! 5 The whitening filter of first differencing and illusion creator in econometrics The Frisch model of noise-­driven cycles is formulated in continuous-­time differential equations. The discrete-­time model and difference equation are widely used in econometrics because of the mathematical convenience of regression analysis. The first differencing (FD) filter is an essential device in creating an equilibrium illusion in econometric modeling.

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