By Jonathan M. Roberts (auth.)
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4O The argument is that crises are natural and even desirable. If no crises occur, then one side or the other is neglecting its own interests. Therefore in a bipolar system the caution, moderation and management of crises is very important, especially if the system also involves superpowers with nuclear weapons. However, is 'peace by crisis' a healthy idea? It suggests that for a bipolar system the best place is on the brink of war. 1 demonstrates this. '= ---- I ___ _ I I Results I I ~--T--- -Sipolarity I I I I -----,- I I I I I e CI..
The analyst's subjective evaluation based The Decision-Maker 43 upon the images held is very important here. As a result of this subjective element, different analysts within the same agency may become aware of the pattern at different times. Also, the same event can be noticed by different agencies at different times. The analyst first has to determine what of the intelligence is signal and what is noise. Then the EWI has to be separated from the signals. When the em erging pattern has been identified the analyst has three choices; alert his or her manager; wait for more EWIs so as to increase the confidence of the forecast; or wait for more analysts to reach a similar judgement.
The nature' -of the system affects the frequency of occurrence and the effect of crisis. The 'sensitivity' of the system is determined by the structure and processes wh ich maintain it. The type of system, therefore, influences (a) the rate at wh ich crises occur, and (b) the probability of direct confrontation between actors when any actor attempts to change abruptly significant systemic variables. A system is in crisis when it is in danger of no longer being able to fulfil the conditions necessary for its survival.